In the Wings

I've started writing this before Kamala Harris gives her speech accepting the Democratic Party nomination to be president of the United States for this election cycle, so obviously I don't know what she's going to say. Or rather, I've been a voter since 1992, which makes this my ninth election cycle and, with two party conventions per cycle, my 18th nomination acceptance speech, so I can say I broadly do know what she's going to say. The particulars are going to differ, like hers has an infinitely higher likelihood of mentioning a coconut tree for the first time, but overall she's going to say America is actually great, though we have some real problems that I have Plans X, Y and Z for, but also America is seriously great. It's a pretty standard three-act structure, like a film or a play, if films and plays ended with the principle leads avalanched by balloons.

Overall in this convention, the only real surprise has been the vibes. So positive! Joe Biden was uncharacteristically energetic and VERY AUDIBLE. Of the three former Dem presidents, two living and one mostly, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton gave speeches. Obama threw in a dick joke at Trump's expense, but kept things pretty on-brand, biographical and hope-y. Michelle Obama came out throwing haymakers, all of which landed. There was 100% more Lil Jon than I expected. Unlike the GOP convention that was way, way more rambling but somehow tighter, stiffer, in the way that only a function attended by only white people can be, people seem... happy to be there? The dam-burst of relief that hit the Democratic faithful and the electorate in general when Joe Biden pulled the ripcord on his campaign has somehow, to the surprise of the cynics like me, survived this long into the cycle, manifesting clearly in the horse-race polling, which means way more than it normally does as we've seen all polls in the last two cycles vastly underrepresent Democrat votes. If you're not sure what I mean by that, just say "red wave" to any GOP stan you know and watch their demeanors curdle. Although honestly, in the last few months, they just kind of look that way by default.

It's not just in electoral polling, but in basic favorability polls, she's only down by like two percent, only marginally unliked, which is unheard of in this day and age. We've been living in a world since 2016 where every national politician has to endure the kind of review bombing usually reserved for Star Wars movies that have girls in them. There's no consideration, just a reflex LOATHING for the person carrying the flag for the side you are not on. This is exacerbated of course when the person being reviewed is also objectively terrible, but that just obscures the fundamentals. Joe Biden's weakness wasn't necessarily his age, it was that he was, for whatever reason, never nationally popular despite being regular-ass Joe Biden. Hated at almost the same degree as the guy who buried his ex-wife on his golf course and wants you to believe wind turbines give you cancer. But Joe Biden-as-president was born in the inky, sticky, smelly medium of the dying Trump presidency and the Jan. 6 insanity. Whatever was clung to him as he emerged immediately ossified into this seemingly impenetrable carapace through which no feelings of general affection would be allowed to pass.

His act of stepping out of the race, then, was a final shedding of that chrysalis, or at least a decision to disregard it. He won't be suddenly loved by the electorate as a whole (or even a plurality), but the gratitude toward him in the convention and overall is a palpable, measurable thing. Not in polls, but you know, vibes-wise. It probably doesn't feel great to watch that good feeling zing right over his head and land on Kamala Harris, but you know, when all this is over, he gets his government pensions either way. I can't think of a better way to express love in 2024 America than in a measurable annuity.

For my friends who have been buoyed by the Harris pivot, I've always said it comes down to her convention speech. I still feel like the poll tracking results are real, but ephemeral. She needs to be hopeful, she needs to be joyful, she needs to carry the feeling of the convention floor into living rooms and phone screens. I don't think we need much reminding that Donald Trump is well past his sell-by date. The most brilliant move of her campaign so far has been to be only 59 years old. Maybe in that light, her best move would be to walk out, wait for the applause to die down, then 1991 Joe Pesci it and walk right off.

But no, as a Californian, I know she can both promise and deliver, in speeches and in policy. Her phase of being an undefined vessel of realized relief can't last forever. It's up to her here and in the one debate with Trump to carry the momentum into something tangible, past the idea stage and into something realized and countable, like a cast vote in November. I might be too nervous to watch it live, but I have faith that tomorrow when I piece it together from 200 separate YouTube shorts, it will have been great.